StratoDem Analytics Forecasting Accuracy
StratoDem Analytics clients frequently ask for backtesting results to build comfort with longer-run demographic and economic forecasts. This year, we scaled up our backtesting and are releasing a technical brief of an in-house study of our model output with backtesting of forecast results. The backtest demonstrates that StratoDem Analytics is frequently at least 25% more accurate for forecasts of population compared to the leading legacy-generation demographic data provider.
Based on forecasts made using 2012 data for predicting 2017 county-level population estimates, StratoDem Analytics is typically 25%+ more accurate than the top legacy-generation demographic forecast provider.
|StratoDem Analytics||Top Competitor|
|Median Absolute Prediction Error||2.09%||2.85%|
|Mean Absolute Prediction Error||2.86%||3.53%|
|95th percentile absolute prediction error||8.04%||8.90%|
To learn more about forecasting accuracy from StratoDem Analytics and to download our accuracy study: stratodem.com/forecasting-accuracy.