StratoDem Analytics Forecasting Accuracy

StratoDem Analytics clients frequently ask for backtesting results to build comfort with longer-run demographic and economic forecasts. This year, we scaled up our backtesting and are releasing a technical brief of an in-house study of our model output with backtesting of forecast results. The backtest demonstrates that StratoDem Analytics is frequently at least 25% more accurate for forecasts of population compared to the leading legacy-generation demographic data provider.

Based on forecasts made using 2012 data for predicting 2017 county-level population estimates, StratoDem Analytics is typically 25%+ more accurate than the top legacy-generation demographic forecast provider.

2012-2017 county-level population forecasting error: StratoDem Analytics vs Top Competitor
StratoDem Analytics Top Competitor
Median Absolute Prediction Error 2.09% 2.85%
Mean Absolute Prediction Error 2.86% 3.53%
95th percentile absolute prediction error 8.04% 8.90%

To learn more about forecasting accuracy from StratoDem Analytics and to download our accuracy study: