Forecasting accuracy

September 10, 2018

Accuracy matters

County-level forecasting error rates by StratoDem Analytics

StratoDem Analytics reduces forecasting errors by 25% to 50% on vital metrics including population, household net worth, and incomes

Accelerating and improving data releases

Demographic forecast providers used to work on a ten-year cycle. While the Decennial Census still provides the base truth for data estimates, new computational techniques allow for combining previously disparate data sets to create nowcasts - or estimates of where the economy and demographics are today - before the data is released.

StratoDem Analytics clients frequently ask for backtesting results to build comfort with longer-run demographic and economic forecasts. This year, we scaled up our backtesting and are releasing a technical brief of an in-house study of our model output with backtesting of forecast results. The backtest demonstrates that StratoDem Analytics is frequently at least 25% more accurate for forecasts of population compared to the leading legacy-generation demographic data provider.

At its best, the StratoDem Analytics engine from 2012 is nearly equal to the 2017 Census Bureau estimates. Population forecasts for Westchester County, New York and Lehigh County, Pennsylvania were off by fractions of a percent. The Westchester County forecast was 980,240, compared to a 980,244 Census Bureau estimate, and the Lehigh County forecast was 366,483, compared to 366,494 from the Census Bureau.

Read our forecasting accuracy technical brief

Access our technical brief reviewing the results of our forecasting backtest

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