StratoDem Analytics is frequently contacted by leading news organizations about our strategy, research, and predictive analytics work, and we’ve listed some of the stories below. If you’re a member of the media looking for insight from StratoDem Analytics, please feel free to contact us with this page or call 617.213.0038. Please also note that we encourage journalists referring to work reported in other articles to feel free to contact us for fact checking.
In an analysis for The Post, StratoDem Analytics found that three variables best explained voting shifts form 2016 to 2020: educational attainment, race and ethnicity, and county-level economic performance. Rapidly growing counties around Austin and Dallas turned more blue, primarily because they attracted higher educated workers who are more likely to vote Democratic.
Many swing states’ economies are projected to fare poorly in the second quarter as a consequence of lockdowns... In Nevada and Florida, a decline in tourism is to blame for second-quarter annualised GDP forecasts of minus 36 per cent and minus 33 per cent respectively, according to StratoDem Analytics. These two states had stay-at-home orders until the end of April without detailed plans for reopening, though some restrictions have lifted.
Another forecast provided by StratoDem Analytics indicates Dallas County is in for a rough second quarter, at the very least: a predicted gross domestic product decline of 19.7 percent, or what amounts to approximately a $13.6 billion economic hit. That equates to a staggering loss of GDP per household in the county for the second quarter of nearly $13,800.
“Overall, Connecticut will likely be one of the harder-hit states in this recession, across the board,” said James Chung, a partner at StratoDem Analytics. “Not as hard hit as Michigan or northern Indiana, given their greater level of dependence on cyclical manufacturing, and not as hard hit as tourism-dominated counties, but this recession is going to be deeply painful for a lot of households and organizations across all of Connecticut.”
Several Florida counties that rely more heavily on tourism will get hit the hardest, StratoDem predicted. Manatee would see a 28 percent drop. Lee County, home to Fort Myers, would fall 27 percent, and Collier County, also down 27 percent. All three will be among the hardest hit large or mid-sized counties in the country, StratoDem said.
Job gains in the first two months of 2020 suggested the state was sustaining that momentum on the eve of the March collapse triggered by the outbreak of the COVID-19 strain of coronavirus. If that indeed was the case, the StratoDem calculations would work out to the Connecticut economy absorbing a 5 percent hit to the annualized GDP that might otherwise have been generated.
“The majority of U.S. counties will likely see a -15% to -20% drop in second quarter GDP,” Chung said. “But among midsize and large U.S. counties – populations greater than 250,000 – the trickle-down impact from COVID-19 will hit much harder for counties driven by tourism or cyclical manufacturing, seeing drops of -25% or more.”
“This is rewiring everything, and we’re trying to figure out how to adapt to the realities of the COVID-19 economy,” Chung said. “We’re not trying to panic people. We’re sharing this data with the public because we want people to understand this is serious and it’s going to require government and the community working in tandem to put the pieces back together.”
According to James Chung, Partner at StratoDem Analytics, “it is crystal clear that the US has entered a sharp recession.” StratoDem Analytics’s national Gross Domestic Product forecast for the second quarter of 2020 is a decline of 7.45%. Each county will suffer differently. “Many counties will likely see a -5% to -10% drop in Q2 GDP, within the range of many of the most-recent GDP estimates,” said Chung. “But the economic impact hits much harder for counties driven by tourism or cyclical manufacturing.”
The Southeast may be the most attractive area of the country for leveraging opportunity funds for senior housing. Four of the top five U.S. senior living opportunity zones are in the region, according to research from Stratodem Analytics, a real estate data science firm. Those markets are:
The other top senior housing opportunity zone market is Brooklyn, New York.
The Vallejo area landed in the top 1 percent of metro regions for growth in 2016, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, which released its Gross Metropolitan Product data for metros across the country on Wednesday. This came as no surprise to analysts from StratoDem Analytics, who said they already knew this because the firm generates “now-cast” data as of the latest month, company officials said.
Sarasota-Manatee finished among the nation’s “top regions” last year for gross metropolitan product last year, the regionalized version of GDP, said James Chung of StratoDem Analytics, which analyzed the data.
“But here’s the extra good news for Sarasota-Bradenton: While the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis won’t release 2017 data for another 12 months, our analysis indicates that the GMP for 2017 year-to-date shows that Sarasota-Bradenton is one of the few maintaining that pace, with 4.5 percent annual growth so far in 2017,” he said.