Industry-standard data for demand forecasting typically caps out at age 75+, almost 10 years before the typical age of assisted living entry. Fundamentally, the reliance on insufficient data on future demand growth has led to suboptimal outcomes, with industry supply growth outstripping demand growth in many places, while missing some of the strongest undersupplied market opportunities. Better demand-growth data can lead to seniors housing investment outperformance, avoiding truly oversupplied markets and targeting markets with stronger seniors housing demand growth.
A ranking of 36 top senior living owners based on current and forecast senior household growth, including net-worth-qualified senior households. Top-ranked owners by senior household wealth have roughly double the median household net worth for 80+ households compared to the bottom five large senior living owners.
With all 8,700+ census tracts identified as Opportunity Zones available in the platform, the StratoDem Analytics engine can score each of these census tracts on numerous dimensions. 600 Opportunity Zones are in market areas that already exceed the US median household income, while median household income growth in 2,600 OZs is forecast to outpace US growth over the next five years.
Peak Millennial, as this piece is titled, is not just impactful to Austin, Texas. The Millennial shift into older cohorts affects the housing demand across the country. No longer the college students and early career professionals that the industry has been marketing to, they will seek different amenities, while remaining more likely to rent than earlier generations. The new college students and early career professionals may have different preferences, but, more importantly, there is considerably slower growth in that segment demanding housing.
After the release of the 2018 ASHA 50, StratoDem Analytics pulled addresses for public senior living portfolios for 40 of the top 50 seniors housing owners. The StratoDem Analytics Engine ran through an analysis of more than 5,000 properties to identify which seniors housing owners have more positive outlooks for future market demand growth. The gap in future market demand growth between top and bottom large senior living owners? A 2x margin.
StratoDem Analytics clients frequently ask for backtesting results to build comfort with longer-run demographic and economic forecasts. This year, we scaled up our backtesting and are releasing a technical brief of an in-house study of our model output with backtesting of forecast results. The backtest demonstrates that StratoDem Analytics is frequently at least 25% more accurate for forecasts of population compared to the leading legacy-generation demographic data provider.