Research by StratoDem Analytics
Moving past age 75+ data to better measure demand growth for seniors housing
Forecast growth in households age 85+ with at least $25,000 in household income, 2019-2024
August 15, 2019 | By Sara Rutledge, Michael Clawar
Industry-standard data for demand forecasting typically caps out at age 75+, almost 10 years before the typical age of assisted living entry. Fundamentally, the reliance on insufficient data on future demand growth has led to suboptimal outcomes, with industry supply growth outstripping demand growth in many places, while missing some of the strongest undersupplied market opportunities. Better demand-growth data can lead to seniors housing investment outperformance, avoiding truly oversupplied markets and targeting markets with stronger seniors housing demand growth.
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2019 US Senior Housing Market Rankings
Map of forecast growth rate in households age 80+ years with household net worth of at least $250,000 from 2019-2024 by metropolitan area in continental US. Source: StratoDem Analytics
2019 Q1 Senior Housing Portfolio Rankings
Map of households age 80+ years with household net worth of at least $250,000 in 2019 by metropolitan area in continental US. Source: StratoDem Analytics
February 06, 2019 | By Michael Clawar
A ranking of 36 top senior living owners based on current and forecast senior household growth, including net-worth-qualified senior households. Top-ranked owners by senior household wealth have roughly double the median household net worth for 80+ households compared to the bottom five large senior living owners.
Alphas, Betas and Momentum for Market Selection
Map of Local Market Alpha by MSA. Source: StratoDem Analytics
Opportunity Zone Analysis
Map of proposed Opportunity Zones in Texas
November 19, 2018 | By Sara Rutledge, Michael Clawar
With all 8,700+ census tracts identified as Opportunity Zones available in the platform, the StratoDem Analytics engine can score each of these census tracts on numerous dimensions. 600 Opportunity Zones are in market areas that already exceed the US median household income, while median household income growth in 2,600 OZs is forecast to outpace US growth over the next five years.
Peak Millennial: An Austin case study
Austin 25-to-29 census tract population growth forecasts, 2018-2023. Source: StratoDem Analytics
September 25, 2018 | By Sara Rutledge
Peak Millennial, as this piece is titled, is not just impactful to Austin, Texas. The Millennial shift into older cohorts affects the housing demand across the country. No longer the college students and early career professionals that the industry has been marketing to, they will seek different amenities, while remaining more likely to rent than earlier generations. The new college students and early career professionals may have different preferences, but, more importantly, there is considerably slower growth in that segment demanding housing.
Senior housing demand outlook
Highlighted: Counties with the largest percentage growth of the population ages 80+ with household net worth of $250,000+ through 2023.
September 17, 2018 | By Michael Clawar, Sara Rutledge
After the release of the 2018 ASHA 50, StratoDem Analytics pulled addresses for public senior living portfolios for 40 of the top 50 seniors housing owners. The StratoDem Analytics Engine ran through an analysis of more than 5,000 properties to identify which seniors housing owners have more positive outlooks for future market demand growth. The gap in future market demand growth between top and bottom large senior living owners? A 2x margin.
Forecasting accuracy
September 10, 2018 | By Michael Clawar, Sara Rutledge
StratoDem Analytics clients frequently ask for backtesting results to build comfort with longer-run demographic and economic forecasts. This year, we scaled up our backtesting and are releasing a technical brief of an in-house study of our model output with backtesting of forecast results. The backtest demonstrates that StratoDem Analytics is frequently at least 25% more accurate for forecasts of population compared to the leading legacy-generation demographic data provider.