2019 US Senior Housing Market Rankings

February 11, 2019

Net-worth-qualified senior households by metropolitan area in 2019

Map of households age 80+ years with household net worth of at least $250,000 in 2019 by metropolitan area in continental US.
Source: StratoDem Analytics

Introduction

  • There are more senior households in large markets, but that does not necessarily translate into higher density per square mile. For senior living investors and developers, density provides increased opportunities for demand capture.
  • While 25% of US markets boast at least half of their 80+ households as net-worth-qualified, the top markets are largely in south and central Florida.
  • California dominates the top markets for highest 80+ median household net worth, supported by high home values, with the top two markets on the periphery of the Bay Area.
  • Myrtle Beach, Las Vegas, Charleston and Raleigh rank among the top ten metros for future growth in net-worth-qualified senior households nationally.

Methodology

  • This analysis includes all 401 micropolitan/metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) available in the StratoDem Research Suite.
  • For each MSA, the 80+ household count, density by square mile, and net worth are nowcast for 2019 and forecast through 2024, providing insight into relative senior housing demand trends across the US.
  • StratoDem Analytics is able to further segment 80+ households into “net-worth-qualified senior households”. These are households ages 80+ with net worth of $250,000 or more, reflecting typical client usage for net-worth-qualified seniors within the StratoDem Research Suite customizable net worth segments from $25,000 to $2.5MM.

80+ household density in Philadelphia, PA

Map of 2019 80+ household density in Philadelphia, PA
Source: StratoDem Analytics

Large MSAs have more senior households - not necessarily higher density

There are six MSAs with more than 100,000 80+ households in 2019 -- New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Tampa, Houston, and Phoenix -- but only half of these make the top ten list for density. The top ten MSAs for 80+ households per square mile are:

Metro 80+ households per square mile 80+ households
1. Philadelphia, PA 156.25 52,124
2. New York-Jersey City-White Plains, NY-NJ 93.28 366,236
3. San Francisco-Redwood City-South San Francisco, CA 90.93 46,156
4. Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine, CA 89.87 71,802
5. Detroit-Dearborn-Livornia, MI 67.78 43,013
6. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA 53.36 218,845
7. Nassau County-Suffolk County, NY 51.33 75,377
8. Chicago-Naperville-Arlington Heights, IL 47.16 165,406
9. Urban Honolulu, HI 46.45 28,747
10. Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach, FL 44.88 54,989
2019 senior (age 80+) household density and household count by metropolitan area (divisions used where applicable)
Source: StratoDem Analytics

We note a couple of important observations from household density rankings:

  1. The top ten markets for 80+ households are substantially more dense than most MSAs. Within the top ten list, the top market is 68% more dense than the second and the first three markets are twice as dense as the last three markets. Only 34 MSAs on the complete list of markets have more than 20 80+ households per square mile.
  2. Large counts of 80+ households in a market does not imply density. New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago may be on the top ten, but the fourth largest market for total 80+ households – Phoenix – only has 7.71 80+ households per square mile.

Florida leads share of net-worth-qualified senior households

There are 100 MSAs with at least half of their 80+ households meeting the net-worth-qualified criteria of at least $250,000 in net worth, which is a key metric for identifying market demand. While states with high home values, like California and New York, have many market areas with high net worth senior households, Florida dominates the top ten by share of all households:

Metro 80+ HH with $250,000+ in net worth, % of all HH 80+ HH with $250,000+ in net worth
1. Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, FL 9.29% 15,253
2. Barnstable Town, MA 7.36% 6,732
3. The Villages, FL 7.27% 4,360
4. Sebastian-Vero Beach, FL 7.08% 4,915
5. Punta Gorda, FL 6.97% 6,104
6. North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL 6.61% 24,260
7. San Rafael, CA 6.20% 6,346
8. West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Delray Beach, FL 6.13% 37,015
9. Urban Honolulu, HI 5.70% 19,794
10. Ocean City, NJ 5.67% 2,170
2019 percentage of households that are age 80+ with $250,000 in net worth by metropolitan area (divisions used where applicable)
Source: StratoDem Analytics

Two observations from the qualified household concentration rankings:

  1. South and central Florida dominate the list with six of the top ten markets for net-worth-qualified 80+ households as a share of total households. Naples on the southwest Florida coast tops the list with 2.3x more of these households than second-ranked Barnstable on Cape Cod Bay.
  2. West Palm Beach has the largest count 80+ net-worth-qualified households on this top ten list, followed by the North Port MSA south of Tampa and Honolulu.

Senior household wealth highest in California

For a metric measuring broad ability to pay, median senior household net worth is the preferred choice because this age segment may be on fixed income. The top ten MSAs for median senior household net worth are shown below with MSA median household income:

Metro Median household net worth, 80+ households Median household income, 80+ households
1. San Rafael, CA $676,190 $59,818
2. Salinas, CA $606,798 $61,600
3. San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA $584,572 $51,863
4. Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA $581,158 $46,779
5. Urban Honolulu $571,417 $55,077
6. San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles-Arroyo Grande, CA $517,205 $47,691
7. San Francisco-Redwood City-South San Francisco, CA $505,215 $46,164
8. Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA $466,550 $51,571
9. Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, FL $464,678 $59,112
10. Napa, CA $462,422 $49,910
Median household net worth for households age 80+ by metro area (divisions used where applicable)
Source: StratoDem Analytics

Two observations from senior household net worth rankings:

  1. California dominates the list of top markets for 80+ median household net worth, accounting for eight of these markets. The non-California markets – Naples and Honolulu – are also notable for inclusion on the list of top ten markets for share of 80+ net-worth-qualified senior households. Honolulu is also a top market for qualified senior household density.
  2. Only two markets – San Rafael and Salinas – have median household net worth of $600,000 or more. Both are just outside the Bay Area in Northern California and it is noteworthy that Salinas includes Monterey and Carmel-By-The-Sea because median net worth for all households in that MSA is quite different, at $173,000.

Top markets for future growth in net-worth-qualified senior households

In addition to current positioning, the StratoDem Research Suite can analyze the demand outlook for senior housing with forecast growth of age 80+ households with household net worth of $250,000 or higher. Across the US, the top 10 markets (population of at least 100,000) for growth of net-worth-qualified senior households are:

Metro
1. Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
2. Anchorage, AK
3. Bremerton-Silverdale, WA
4. Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV
5. Charleston-North Charleston, SC
6. Raleigh, NC
7. Reno, NV
8. Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
9. Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX
10. Austin-Round Rock, TX

Future growth in net-worth-qualified senior households by metropolitan area in 2019-2024

Percent growth in households age 80+ with at least $250,000 in net worth by metropolitan area (divisions used where applicable), 2019-2024
Source: StratoDem Analytics

Interested in learning more?

The StratoDem Research Suite provides analytical tools to create portfolio rankings in senior living and other real estate sectors. See more on the full suite of economic and geo-demographic research and forecasting tools for customization, including higher levels of net worth or age restrictions for senior living analysis.

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