SENIOR HOUSING DEMAND GROWTH WILL BE UNEVEN
Boston, September 17th, 2018
According to StratoDem Analytics forecasts, most large senior living owners will see growth rates of net-worth-qualified senior household slow down as much as 10% from 2018 through 2023.
This story will likely not play out evenly across all owners. At the portfolio level, better-positioned owners, such as Spectrum Retirement and Pacifica, are forecast to see net-worth qualified household growth at roughly 1.6x that of lower-ranked owners over the next five years.
Among the large senior living REITs, Senior Housing Properties Trust has a 1.2x stronger positioning for net-worth-qualified senior household growth through 2023.
MEASUREMENTS OF FUTURE INDEPENDENT LIVING AND ASSISTED LIVING MARKET DEMAND GROWTH
Accurate household net worth estimation matters in senior living, particularly for assisted living. While the StratoDem Analytics Engine can provide estimates of households by net worth cuts from $25,000 to $2.5MM, our clients typically use $250,000 as a starting point for net-worth-qualified age 80+ households.
However, one of the main points our clients have realized is that the change in the future growth rate is one of the most predictive factors in value creation for real-estate-based assets. Using these 40 senior living owners as an example, the StratoDem Analytics Engine ranked owners by:
Presence in wealthier senior markets currently
Future market area growth outlook for net-worth-qualified senior households
Change in market area growth outlook compared to the past five years
Senior Housing owners ranking
Portfolio overview - Top 15 senior living owners by forecast 2018-2023 growth
|ASHA Rank||Owner Name||Median 80+ HH NW*||HH growth 2018-2023**||Delta HH growth 2013-2018-2023***|
|23||Pacifica Senior Living||$198K||+21.1%||-5.9%|
|41||Kisco Senior Living||$271K||+19.9%||-6.7%|
|6||Senior Housing Properties Trust||$193K||+19.3%||-5.3%|
|26||USA Properties Fund||$272K||+19.3%||-5.9%|
|1||Brookdale Senior Living||$190K||+19.3%||-6.5%|
|13||National Health Investors||$182K||+19.1%||-6.2%|
See demand drivers for your portfolio online or live at an industry conference
Meet with StratoDem Analytics around fall industry conferences in Chicago or Boston. If you or anyone on your team would like, we can walk through questions you’re grappling with about properties you’re currently looking at, a specific portfolio, property market-area analysis, or a national metro-level look using the cloud-based StratoDem Analytics Engine
StratoDem Analytics tracks and forecasts all age cohorts from 25 to 85+, all income levels from under $25,000 to $200,000+, and all net worth levels from less than $25,000 to $2.5MM+.
Granularity of data
StratoDem Analytics examines hyper-localized markets by income, net worth (up to $2.5 million or higher), for age 75-79, 80-84, 85+ or any other age cohort, which no legacy-generation data provider can generate accurately at this level of granularity.
This granularity and accuracy offers significant analysis advantages for assisted living, where the average age of entry is in the eighties, and high-end senior living, which requires higher levels of net worth than tracked by legacy-generation data providers.
StratoDem Analytics offers
Senior Housing Solutions
StratoDem Analytics helps REITs, private equity funds, operators and advisory firms in senior housing and healthcare to make investment, development, disposition and marketing decisions faster, earlier and better by building predictive models on massive local-level economic and demographic data.
StratoDem Analytics clients include some of the largest REITs and PE funds in senior housing.